The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed transportation behavior. Compared to 2019, roughly half as many people globally are traveling by plane; road congestion is down by at least 50% in much of the U.S, Europe, and Asia; and telecommuting remains the norm for many. What do these trends mean for the future of the automobile, arguably the most important consumer product in history?

Our recent study (conducted pre-pandemic) suggests that preferences for automobile travel were already shifting among Millennials. Born between 1981 and 1998, Millennials are, compared to prior generations, more highly educated, more likely to delay starting families, and, having come of age during the Great Recession, more in debt and fiscally conservative. They are also described as “digital natives,” having grown up in media-saturated and technology-rich environments. Using the U.S. auto industry as our empirical context, our research asks whether the shared characteristics and experiences of a demographic group, such as a generation cohort, can create industry and field change, and how these changes come about.

Millennials drive for 8% fewer trips than older generations

To answer these questions, we first interviewed a national sample of 40 Millennials to explore their attitudes around automobiles. We found broad ambivalence to the entire automotive field. As one respondent said: “I’ve considered getting a car, especially when I was in college. But now it’s like, meh… I mean, like, it doesn’t sound appealing whatsoever.” Others expressed similar sentiments, noting that driving was stressful, that the economic and environmental costs of owning a car were unattractive, and that many activities that once required a car could now be substituted with more appealing technologies or transportation options, such as streaming movies at home instead of driving to the theatre, or using car sharing services such as Zipcar.

To determine if these attitudes were truly representative of this generation, we conducted a national survey of 2,225 U.S. adults, ages 18 – 65. Comparing three generations of adults—and controlling for socio-economic factors such as income, education, and household structure—we found that Millennials report driving for a significantly smaller proportion of their weekly trips (~8%) than either Gen X’ers or Baby Boomers, and that many of their attitudes and preferences related to car use were, indeed, unique. Importantly, these generational differences in car use persist even after controlling for socio-economic factors, suggesting that it is their different attitudes that account for differences in driving behavior.

Millennials have different attitudes and want unique experiences

What do these findings mean for the automobile industry and the future of transportation more broadly? Although our results do not necessarily indicate that Millennials are driving fewer total miles (in fact some research finds the contrary), our study suggests that they want a different travel experience. If Millennials are indeed permanently imprinted by the shared experiences of their generation, then typical modes of transportation may shift as this group questions the safety, the pleasure, and the environmental impacts of driving. 

Because Millennials are highly sensitive to the economic costs of vehicle ownership, we would expect them, for example, to be particularly open to new forms of shared mobility, such as Maven, Zipcar, Uber, and Lyft. This could mean that while the total stock of vehicles may decline as Millennials become a larger share of the market, the vehicle stock will likely be utilized more intensively, creating incentives for owners to seek out vehicles that emphasize fuel-efficiency over horsepower. The net effects of these changes would have important implications for investments in vehicle manufacturing, vehicle design, and vehicle marketing.

Our survey results also confirmed that Millennials are more likely to believe that driving is dangerous and that it poses opportunity costs. This might suggest that connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) will have particular appeal with Millennials, especially if CAVs are integrated with other consumer information technology, as seems likely. Because Millennials have a stronger environmental ethic than earlier generations, we would also expect they will be disproportionately drawn toward convenient public transit options as well as electric vehicles, which are already cleaner than internal combustion engines, on average, and will only become more so.

Uncoordinated groups can drive change through correlated experiences

Our results also offer important insights that have implications beyond the automobile industry. We found, for example, that Millennials engage in the creation of what we term cohort myths: shared and repeated ideas by which the cohort’s identity becomes reinforced. Many of our interviewees painted a picture of Millennials being “experience oriented,” yet our survey results found they were no more so than prior generations. These myths may, nevertheless, serve to further deepen a group’s impact on a field, leading in this case to further rebuke of the automobile. Critically, our results show that what we term correlated groups, those with shared characteristics and experiences, can have collective impact even without actively coordinating.

The youth-based global success of the climate movement and the far-reaching impact of Black Lives Matter make clear the potential power of these correlated groups –with limited central organizing – to impact taken-for-granted industry structures. Many industries may find themselves affected by these pressures in the coming years. Of course, as the pandemic drags on, it’s hard to say whether Millennials will continue to feel “meh” about cars and driving. Perhaps the need for social distancing will lead this generation back into the driver’s seat. For those who don’t already own vehicles, our study might suggest that their economic concerns and general ambivalence toward cars will lead them to consider used cars first. Alternatively, as working remotely becomes the norm, Millennial attitudes against driving may become further entrenched. Indeed, as many workers discover that there can be perks to not commuting, the shared experience of this pandemic may make many of us a little more “Millennial.”